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Table 7 Underlying distributions and confidence intervals of the parameters for the probabilistic sensitivity analysis

From: Reducing the burden of iron deficiency anemia in Cote D’Ivoire through fortification

Parameters Baseline values 95% CI Distribution References
Share of anemia due to IDA
 Pre-school-children % 64 (0.57: 0.70) Beta Kassebaum et al. and Asorbayire et al. [1, 6]
 School age children % 45 (0.39: 0.51) Beta
 Women % 39 (0.34: 0.44) Beta
 Men % 18 (0.15: 0.20) Beta
Impact of anemia in preschool children
 Relative risk of mortality 2.19 (1.68: 3.36) Lognormal Brabin et al. [37]
 IQ loss due to IDA (points) 9 (5.1: 13.4) Gamma Lozoff et al. [39]
 Impact of IQ losses on wages % 8 (0.05: 0.01) Beta Psacharopoulos [53]
 Intergeneration income correlationa 0.55 (0.50: 0.59) Beta Black, Solon [51, 52]
Impact of anemia in school children
 Relative risk to dropout (risk) 1.25 (1.01: 1.45) Lognormal Soemantri et al., Hutchinson et al., Bobonis et al., and Walker et al. [27, 30,31,32,33]
 Reduced learning at school % 10 (0.087: 0.116) Beta Soemantri et al. and Hutchinson et al. [29, 30]
 Intergeneration income correlationa 0.35 (0.31: 0.38) Beta Black [51]
 Returns on education % 10.9 (0.079: 0.139) Lognormalb
Impact of anemia in adults on wages
 Moderate manual labor % 5 (0.045: 0.057) Lognormalb Basta [54]
 Additional loss intense manual labor % 12 (0.11 0: 0.136) Lognormalb
Disability weights (DW) in score units
 Anemia mild (DW) 0.005 (0.002: 0.023) Beta Plessow et al. and Murray et al. [42, 43, 45]
 Anemia moderate (DW) 0.058 (0.038: 0.086) Beta
 Anemia severe (DW) 0.164 (0.112: 0.228) Beta
 Intellectual disability mild (DW) 0.031 (0.018: 0.049) Beta
 Intellectual disability moderate (DW) 0.08 (0.053: 0.114) Beta
Other parameters
 Life expectancy (years) 58 (56.2: 60.8) Gamma World Factbook [46]
 Working life begins (years) 15 (13.2: 18.1) Gamma World Bank [47]
 Working life ends (years) 65 (60.6: 71.4) Gamma World Bank [47]
 Labor force participation % 55 (0.497: 0.571) Beta World Bank [47]
 Projected income growth % 3.5 (0.039: 0.031) Normal World Bank [47]
 Interest rate % 3 (0.034: 0.026) Normal Smith [49]
 Mean monthly wage (CFA | 2015) 64,575 (54,575: 74,575) Gamma National Statistics Cote D’Ivoire [48]
  1. aIntergenerational income correlation coefficient is unadjusted for years of education on pre-school children where for school age children is adjusted for education
  2. bThe percentages of those variables are converted into logarithms Log(var + 1) for PSA analysis